Donald Trump

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The Week in Public Finance: The Trump Budget Edition

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BY  | MAY 26, 2017
Someone holds a copy of President Trump's fiscal 2018 budget at the U.S. Government Publishing Office's plant. (AP/Carolyn Kaster)

Hysteria Over Cuts

President Trump unveiled his budget this week, and while it merely expanded upon an outline he submitted in March, it was still met with near-immediate outcry from state and local government groups.

In the budget, the president proposes diverting more than $54 billion from various federal agencies to boost defense spending. He also cuts $260 billion over 10 years in expected discretionary spending, a move that critics say drastically reduces federal funding and grants for vital state and local programs that create jobs, raise wages and protect low-income Americans. In total, Trump’s proposal would cut federal spending by more than $3.6 trillion over the next decade.

U.S. Conference of Mayors CEO Tom Cochran issued a statement saying that mayors across the country were "deeply troubled by President Trump’s brazen attack on the very people he promised to protect."

The Takeaway: Trump’s budget included so many drastic changes that even Republicans in Congress were uncomfortable with parts of it. It’s unlikely to pass as is, but it still has state and local governments worried.

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The Week in Public Finance: Trump's Tax Plan, the Tampon Tax and Calling Out the SEC

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BY  | APRIL 28, 2017

Trump Sort of Unveils His Tax Plan

President Trump unveiled his tax reform plan this week, and the massive cuts it proposes have left many wondering how the government would pay for the plan.

Much of the single-page, bullet-pointed statement, which The New York Times called “less a plan than a wish list,” contained promises Trump made on the campaign trail: a much lower corporate tax rate, the elimination of the U.S. tax on foreign profits, a reduction in the number of individual income tax brackets from seven to three, a lower tax rate, and the scrapping of most itemized deductions, including one that lets taxpayers deduct their state and local taxes from their declared federal income.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Wednesday that economic growth, combined with eliminating deductions, would pay for the cuts. Meanwhile, a Tax Foundation analysis of some of these key ideas shows that the plan would ultimately result in more tax revenue for state governments.

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The Emerging Strategy for Capitalizing on Women's Unprecedented Interest in Politics

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Women have mobilized in large numbers to run for office before. Women-in-politics advocates want to make sure it's sustainable this time.
BY  | APRIL 25, 2017

Jean Sinzdak could see right away that this year would be different for women in politics. For the first time in her 12 years of running a seminar for women interested in public office, she had to start a waitlist.

Registrations for the “Ready to Run” program, run by Rutgers University’s Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP), began pouring in after the presidential election. Whether it was Hillary Clinton’s loss or Donald Trump’s victory despite multiple sexual harassment accusations and a video that shows him brag about grabbing women, the election results have been a mobilizing force.

“We had a lot of women who said, ‘I never considered running myself, but this year I woke up or I realized I had to do it,’” says Sinzdak, the associate director for CAWP.

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The Week in Public Finance: Ballmer's Data Trove, Grading Pension Health and a New Muni Bond Threat

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BY  | APRIL 21, 2017

This Goes Way Beyond Open Data

You might not peg former Microsoft CEO and current owner of the NBA’s Los Angeles Clippers as a government data geek. But Steven Ballmer stepped into that role in a grand scale this week when he unveiled his privately funded, years-long project to help citizens easily track how government spends their money.

Called USAFacts, the website contains federal, state and local aggregated data on revenue and spending, as well as on debt, population, employment and pensions. Want to know about pension debt? Two quick searches reveal that unfunded liabilities in state and local retirement systems have more than quadrupled since 2000. At the same time, the median age in the country has increased by 2.5 years.

As a businessman used to the corporate world, Ballmer wants to make government financial reports more readable. To that end, the site has introduced the first government "10-K report" -- the private sector's version of an annual financial report. It aggregates data from all U.S. governments and gives progress reports on government programs, provides financial balance sheets and gives data on key economic indicators.

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This Infrastructure Program Ended Up Costing Governments Millions. Trump Might Bring It Back.

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States and localities are wary of the president's support for the Build America Bonds program.
BY  | APRIL 6, 2017

A popular Obama-era infrastructure financing program may get revived this year as President Trump moves forward on his pledge to invest $1 trillion in infrastructure. But this time around, state and local governments might not be as excited about it.

The program, Build America Bonds (BABs), was created in 2009 as one of many recession-era initiatives aimed at jump-starting the economy. Unlike tax-exempt municipal bonds, BABs are taxable, and, as a result, open up the municipal market to new investors, such as pension funds or those living abroad. But BABs are also more expensive for governments. So to defray the added cost, the federal government offered a direct subsidy of 35 percent of state and local governments' interest payments on BABs.

But the program became a casualty of sequestration: cutbacks in federal subsidies promised under the program left state and local governments scrambling to fill the void. A recent estimate by the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois found that so far Illinois and its localities have had to pay out a collective $70 million to offset the higher costs of BABs.

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The Week in Public Finance: Trump's Budget, the CBO on Health Care and Accounting for Higher Ed

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BY  | MARCH 17, 2017

Trump’s Budget Cuts

This week, President Trump proposed his budget and, as expected, it focused federal spending cuts on a narrow area that impacts state and local governments the most: discretionary spending. The cuts come by way of diverting more than $54 billion from various federal agencies to defense spending.

The Takeaway: Paying for all these cuts would mean many programs beneficial to states and localities would be targeted. Under the plan, grant funding -- which accounts for 31 percent of state budgets and 22 percent of state and local spending combined -- takes an enormous hit. Specifically, Trump would eliminate the $3 billion Community Development Block Grant program, which was started by President Nixon as a way to provide direct federal assistance to city projects.

In transit, the president calls for a half-billion cut from the wildly popular TIGER grant program. He would also cut $175 million in subsidies for commercial flights to rural airports, eliminate funding for many new transit projects and discontinue support for long-distance Amtrak trains.

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The Week in Public Finance: Oil State Woes, Why 401(k)s Might Not Be For All and More

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BY  | MARCH 3, 2017

Oil State Woes

Oklahoma's credit rating was downgraded this week, making it the third oil state in just one month to suffer such a blow. S&P Global Ratings pushed Oklahoma's rating down to AA, citing the state's chronically weak revenue. The downgrade comes as news broke this week that the state is facing a nearly $900 million shortfall.

"Collectively the state's financial position has deteriorated to a point that further precludes the state from building up reserves in subsequent fiscal years,” says S&P credit analyst Oscar Padilla, who adds the state is now more vulnerable to regional or national economic weakness.

This is Oklahoma's third consecutive year with a deficit, and the second straight year of a so-called revenue failure, when collections fall more than 5 percent below estimates.

The action follows downgrades in two other oil states last month: Moody’s Investors Service downgraded West Virginia and Louisiana one notch each. States that rely on oil and energy for significant portions of their economy have had to grapple with revenue shortfalls since the price of oil dropped drastically a year and a half ago.

How Libraries Are Fighting Fake News

Fake news is as old as Bigfoot. But social media and the president have fueled its recent proliferation.
BY  | FEBRUARY 28, 2017

Less than seven miles from the White House, where President Trump has popularized the term "fake news," residents in a suburban Maryland library gathered recently to learn how to not be duped themselves.

“Social media is a common theme here because you see things being shared over and over again,” Ryan O’Grady, media producer and director of the Maryland State Library Resource Center, told the audience. “Just because something is popular doesn’t make it true.”

The program, which O’Grady is running at several libraries in Maryland’s Montgomery County, is in response to the recent explosion of unverified, unsourced and sometimes untrue information that purports itself as news. The program aims to educate residents about how to spot fake news.

While it's not a recent phenomenon -- the Bigfoot myth goes back centuries, and fabricated stories abounded when emailing was new, for example -- fake news played a prominent role in the 2016 presidential election and continues to do so in the new administration. Sites like Facebook and Twitter give fake news outlets a platform to reach more people than they would otherwise be able to. Once the misinformation is out there, it can spread quickly, often before users even read or verify a story

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The Week in Public Finance: Diverging County Economies, Treasurers Talk Trump and Sanctuary City Threats

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BY  | FEBRUARY 17, 2017

County Recoveries Coincide With Political Shifts

The nation's economic recovery accelerated in 2016, with more than 1 in 4 counties reporting a full recovery to pre-recession levels on four key economic indicators. That portion is a huge jump from last year when 1 in 10 reported fully recovering counties, according to the National Association of Counties (NACo).

The four indicators are: job totals, unemployment rates, economic output (GDP) and median home prices. Two-thirds of the nation’s more than 3,000 counties have recovered on at least three of the economic indicators.

Most of the counties that have fully recovered are in Kentucky, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin. In addition, the mid-Atlantic, the Northeast and the West Coast have many nearly-to-fully recovered counties. Large counties (more than 500,000 residents) had the highest rate of full recovery at 41 percent. In contrast, more than three-quarters of small counties (fewer than 50,000 residents) still had not reached their pre-recession peaks in any of the indicators by the close of 2016.

The Takeaway: Both the acceleration of the economic recovery and the fact that it’s mostly happening in very populated areas is widening the gap between the municipal haves and have nots. It also partly explains shifting political allegiances in some mid-sized counties in 2016.

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The Week in Public Finance: What We Don't Know About Sanctuary Cities' Funding, New Reasons to Save and More

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A roundup of money (and other) news governments can use.

BY  | JANUARY 27, 2017

What We Don't Know About Trump's 'Sanctuary City' Order

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump took his first move to defund cities that refuse to cooperate with federal efforts to deport undocumented immigrants. Trump signed an executive order directing the Secretary of Homeland Security to look at federal grant funding to cities “to figure out how we can defund those streams,” said White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer.

Many of the nation’s largest cities -- including Chicago, Los Angeles, New York City and San Francisco -- are immigrant sanctuaries and have said they won’t back down from their policy.

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The Week in Public Finance: Trump's Infrastructure Plan, Risky Pensions and NYC's Surprising Fiscal Health

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A roundup of money (and other) news governments can use.
BY  | JANUARY 13, 2017

How Will Trump's Infrastructure Plan Affect the Economy?

Economic impact estimates are all over the map when it comes to how much of an affect President-elect Donald Trump’s 10-year $1 trillion infrastructure proposal will have on the economy. To that end, two reports came out this week that come to completely different conclusions.

The first, by Georgetown University, says that Trump's plan could create as many as 11 million jobs. However, it cautions, the additional spending in combination with proposed tax cuts and other economic policy shifts could “overheat the economy” by increasing inflation and setting the stage for further interest rate hikes.

The Tax Foundation had a much more modest take. This is partly because the report assessed the varying degrees of economic impact the proposal would have depending on what other policy measures are implemented. The foundation looked at the impact of a theoretical $500 billion investment by the federal government through five funding mechanisms: borrowing, cutting government spending, raising excise taxes, raising the top tax rate on individual income and raising the corporate income tax.

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5 Hot Topics Hitting Public Finance in 2017

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BY  | DECEMBER 29, 2016

In what could be a tumultuous year for state and local finances, these five issues are likely to take center stage.

Tax Reform

Many Capitol Hill watchers expect federal tax reform to roll forward in some fashion in 2017 now that a Republican will be in the White House. There are two major proposals on the table that could directly result in higher costs for states.

For starters, many in Congress have been supportive of limiting the tax-exempt status of municipal bonds. Removing this tax perk for bond investors would force governments to offer higher interest rates on the debt, thus increasing their cost of paying off that debt.

It’s hard to overstate the potential impact of such a move. One estimate pegged the current tax perk savings for state and local governments at about $714 billion from 2000 to 2014. For its part, the federal government estimates it loses as much as $30 billion in potential income tax revenue each year as a result of the perk.

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The Week in Public Finance: Federal Budget Chaos, a Bankruptcy Win and Pension Portfolios

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BY  | DECEMBER 9, 2016
Chaos on Capitol Hill ... and in Statehouses

As state lawmakers begin preparing for their fiscal 2018 budgets, their biggest challenge is in the unknown. With Donald Trump’s election, the future for key state and local funding is almost anybody’s guess.

With Trump in the White House next year, Stan Collender, author of The Guide to The Federal Budget, predicts that a Republican-controlled Congress will move quickly on making major changes before the 2018 midterm elections. But after this unpredictable election, few are willing to predict what exactly those changes will be. All we know now is what’s on the table.

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What We Don't Know About Trump's Carrier Deal (and Most States' Business Deals)

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BY  | DECEMBER 8, 2016

Critics and supporters of Donald Trump’s deal that kept Carrier Corp. from exporting hundreds of jobs from Indiana to Mexico have spent much of the past week arguing about how many jobs the deal actually saved.

But what the public will likely never know is how much the deal helps the air conditioning company’s annual state tax bill. It's information that's typically not released but can reveal whether a tax incentive has the potential to bring a business' state tax burden down to zero.

Last week, President-elect Trump and Vice President-elect Mike Pence, who is still serving as governor of Indiana, announced a deal with Carrier that they say will keep 1,100 jobs in the state in exchange for $7 million in tax breaks over a decade. Since the announcement, unions have refuted the jobs number and said it’s closer to 800 since Carrier still plans to export 500 jobs to Mexico.

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The Week in Public Finance: A Run on Pensions in Dallas, Connecticut's Warning and a Threat to Muni Bonds

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BY  | DECEMBER 2, 2016

Dallas' Pension Problem

Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings is calling on pension officials this week to halt what is amounting to a bank run on the fire and police pension fund. The run, which Rawlings testified has totaled $500 million withdrawn in 2016, is spurred in part by concerns the pension plan’s value is being inflated. Roughly half of the withdrawals have come in a recent six-week span.

Rawlings has asked that pension fund officials suspend so-called DROP payments, which are retirees’ own savings invested in the fund and are separate from their fund-administered pension payments.

For their part, pension fund officials blame the mayor for the run in the first place. Pension Board Chairman Sam Friar noted that Rawlings and other city leaders had refused the fund’s earlier requests to make public statements designed to boost confidence in the fund. “Had they done that, most of this money would not be gone. Simple, simple solution," Friar told the local television station KXAS. “But they refused to do that.”

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The Week in Public Finance: Trump's Impact on Muni Bonds, Panning Social Investing and More

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BY  | NOVEMBER 18, 2016

2 Takes on Trump's Impact on Muni Bonds

 President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies could partially change the landscape of the municipal bond market for investors in two primary ways.

First, his election could put Build America Bonds (BABs) -- or a program like it -- back on the table for government issuers. BABs were introduced in 2009 and 2010 by the Obama administration as a way to stimulate the economy and create jobs. Republicans on Capitol Hill killed the program, but Trump has spoken favorably about it. He's interested in stimulating more investment in infrastructure.

Unlike regular municipal bonds, BABs aren’t tax exempt, making them more appealing to investors such as international bondholders or institutional investors who aren’t eligible to claim an exemption. Thus, they broaden the municipal bond market.

Second, an analysis by the Court Street Group Research (CSGR) says Trump’s income tax plan could affect the municipal market because it would eliminate or reduce the tax exemption for municipal bondholders. “The CSGR approaches the reality of a Trump administration with some trepidation as it applies to municipal bonds,” the analysis said.

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The Week in Public Finance: What a Trump Presidency Could Mean for State and Local Finances and More

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BY  | NOVEMBER 11, 2016

What a Trump Presidency Could Mean for State and Local Finances

An early review of Donald Trump's health-care and trade policies reveals some potentially bad news for state and local governments. According to Fitch Ratings, Trump's proposals would "significantly lower federal transfers to state budgets and could negatively affect economic growth and revenues."

Specifically, Trump has proposed converting Medicaid funding into a block grant program, which Fitch says would lead to much lower federal funding for the states. A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assessment of earlier Medicaid block grant proposals projected declines of between 4 and 23 percent in federal funding over 10 years.