Revenue

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The Hidden Wealth of Cities

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To find it, a new book says, localities need look no further than their roads, airports and convention centers.

BY  | AUGUST 9, 2017
Downtown San Diego, with a view of the convention center.
Downtown San Diego, with a view of the convention center. (Shutterstock)

In the years since the Great Recession, there’s been a lot of effort made to ensure a government is sharing its complete fiscal picture. In many cases, this transparency push has resulted in a government’s bottom line going from a surplus to a shortfall thanks to the introduction of things like pension and retiree health benefit liabilities to annual balance sheets.

But some think governments are still leaving a few things off the ledger. Dag Detter and Stefan Folster, co-authors of the new book The Public Wealth of Cities, say localities are failing to realize the true value of the public assets they own, such as airports, convention centers, utilities and transit systems, just to name a few. “The public sector owns a lot of commercial assets,” says Detter, a Swedish investment advisor and expert on public commercial assets.

But, he adds, it doesn’t manage the risk of increased costs associated with those assets very well. Then, “the inclination is to give [management] away to the private sector,” he says. “But when you do that, you also have to give away the upside.”

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The Week in Public Finance: Alaska Downgraded, Low Income-Tax Revenues and Congress Meddles in Online Sales Taxes Again

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BY  | JULY 21, 2017
The U.S. Capitol (FlickrCC/Geoff Livingston)

 

Alaska Downgraded Again and Again

Just weeks after it passed yet another budget that relied on rainy day savings, Alaska was downgraded by two credit ratings agencies.

First came Moody’s Investors Service, which downgraded Alaska to Aa3, citing the state's continued inability to address structural fiscal challenges and come up with a complete fiscal plan. Just days later, S&P Global Ratings dropped its rating to AA. Like Moody’s, S&P chastised Alaska lawmakers: A reliance on reserves, S&P analyst Timothy Little said, “coupled with the state's economic contraction since 2012 and the fallout of oil prices in mid-2015, have reached an [unsustainable] level."

The Takeaway: The downgrades, while not good news, should come as no surprise. Last month, S&P outright warned officials that it would downgrade the state if the governor and legislature failed to pass a sustainable budget that fully addressed its massive decline in oil revenues.

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Immigrants Cost Taxpayers, Then Pay More Than Most

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New research shows immigrants ultimately make state and local governments more money on average than native-born Americans.
BY  | JULY 6, 2017
Immigrant boy waving an American flag.
Adult children of first-generation immigrants eventually contribute more than native-born Americans in federal, state and local taxes. (AP/Jacquelyn Martin)

While the national debate rages over immigration, new research shows how much new immigrants cost state and local governments in the short-term -- and how much they pay off in the long-term.

Two studies, one by the Urban Institute and a larger one by the National Academies of Science (NAS), find that first-generation immigrants are costlier to state and local governments than native-born adults, but over time, those effects reverse. While first-generation immigrants cost an average of nearly $3,000 more per adult, the adult children of these immigrants eventually catch up and contribute the most on average to federal, state and local coffers.

Kim Reuben, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute, says the initial higher costs of new immigrants is in large part because of their children. "Education is expensive -- if you have more kids in general as a group compared to other groups, you're going to have higher costs," says Reuben, who co-authored the study and contributed to the NAS report. "But the answer isn't to not educate those kids because we also find that the people who contribute the most to society, even when you control for demographics, are these immigrant [kids]."

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In Scranton, Pa., Fiscal Progress Comes With Political Costs

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The city is on the brink of making a speedy turnaround. Many worry that the tough financial decisions it took to get there could reverse some of its political progress.
BY  | MAY 30, 2017
Bill Courtright, the mayor of Scranton, Pa. (Photos by David Kidd)
 

After a quarter-century of being branded by the state as "fiscally distressed," Scranton, Pa., is the closest it's ever been to shedding that label. If its finances remain stable, the city is expected to exit the state’s Act 47 distressed cities program -- which it entered in 1992 -- in the next three years.

What makes the news remarkable is the tailspin that Scranton was in just a few short years ago. When Mayor Bill Courtright took office in 2014, he inherited a city that had balanced its budget for five straight years using onetime revenues and deficit financings. “In early 2014, everyone wrote us off,” says Courtright. “It was like we had a disease.”

But thanks to what observers are calling a new era of political cooperation between the mayor and council, Scranton has made considerable progress. City officials have approved several tax increases aimed at balancing the budget, including a hike in property taxes and garbage fees. Those, combined with a new commuter tax, have injected $16.2 million in new annual revenue into the $90 million general fund.

Courtright credits a team that stubbornly adhered to a financial recovery plan devised with the help of a financial consultant. The mayor, also a former councilmember, says he and the current council have communicated better and worked to move beyond the infighting that dominated public meetings in previous years. “We knew we had to change the image between past mayor and past council,” he says. “We knew we wouldn’t get the financial community to go along with us if we couldn’t cooperate amongst ourselves.”

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Why Few Cities Will Take the Supreme Court Up on Their Right to Sue Banks

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Last week's ruling leaves open a key legal question that could make cities unlikely to file suit.
BY  | MAY 11, 2017

After losing billions in property tax revenue during the foreclosure crisis, local governments notched a win last week when the U.S. Supreme Court affirmed the city of Miami’s right to sue big banks under the Fair Housing Act.

But don’t expect a flood of lawsuits to follow any time soon. The ruling leaves open a key legal question about the burden of proof cities must present to show they were financially harmed.

In the 5-3 ruling, the court sided with Miami, agreeing that the 1968 act, which prohibits racial discrimination in the lease, sale and financing of property, applied to cities as well as people. But the ruling didn’t agree that Miami had provided enough direct evidence linking discriminatory lending practices by Wells Fargo and Bank of America to the financial harms incurred by the city. It also stopped short of saying what a city must do to prove economic harm and remanded the case back to the lower court to answer that question.

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The Week in Public Finance: Oil State Woes, Why 401(k)s Might Not Be For All and More

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BY  | MARCH 3, 2017

Oil State Woes

Oklahoma's credit rating was downgraded this week, making it the third oil state in just one month to suffer such a blow. S&P Global Ratings pushed Oklahoma's rating down to AA, citing the state's chronically weak revenue. The downgrade comes as news broke this week that the state is facing a nearly $900 million shortfall.

"Collectively the state's financial position has deteriorated to a point that further precludes the state from building up reserves in subsequent fiscal years,” says S&P credit analyst Oscar Padilla, who adds the state is now more vulnerable to regional or national economic weakness.

This is Oklahoma's third consecutive year with a deficit, and the second straight year of a so-called revenue failure, when collections fall more than 5 percent below estimates.

The action follows downgrades in two other oil states last month: Moody’s Investors Service downgraded West Virginia and Louisiana one notch each. States that rely on oil and energy for significant portions of their economy have had to grapple with revenue shortfalls since the price of oil dropped drastically a year and a half ago.

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The Week in Public Finance: Pensions Protest Bathroom Bills, a Billion-Dollar Showdown in Kansas and More

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BY  | FEBRUARY 24, 2017

Pension Funds Mess With Texas

The country’s largest public pension systems and investors are pressuring Texas officials not to approve a so-called bathroom bill introduced in January. The legislation targets transgender individuals by requiring them to use the public restroom that aligns with the gender on their birth certificate.

Pointing to North Carolina, which lost hundreds of millions in business from canceled sporting events, concerts and conventions after its bathroom bill became law last year, the group warned in a letter that Texas could meet the same fate. Already, the National Football League and the NCAA have said that the siting of future events in Texas would be jeopardized if lawmakers move forward.

The more than 30 signatories on the letter include comptrollers, controllers and treasurers of California, Connecticut, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont, as well as major firms such as BlackRock and T. Rowe Price. Collectively, the group represents more than $11 trillion in assets.

The Takeaway: Threats like these aren't new. Called social divesting, stewards of major pensions have increasingly urged corporate boards in recent years to make policy changes, such as pressuring energy companies to move away from fossil fuels.

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The Week in Public Finance: Diverging County Economies, Treasurers Talk Trump and Sanctuary City Threats

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BY  | FEBRUARY 17, 2017

County Recoveries Coincide With Political Shifts

The nation's economic recovery accelerated in 2016, with more than 1 in 4 counties reporting a full recovery to pre-recession levels on four key economic indicators. That portion is a huge jump from last year when 1 in 10 reported fully recovering counties, according to the National Association of Counties (NACo).

The four indicators are: job totals, unemployment rates, economic output (GDP) and median home prices. Two-thirds of the nation’s more than 3,000 counties have recovered on at least three of the economic indicators.

Most of the counties that have fully recovered are in Kentucky, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin. In addition, the mid-Atlantic, the Northeast and the West Coast have many nearly-to-fully recovered counties. Large counties (more than 500,000 residents) had the highest rate of full recovery at 41 percent. In contrast, more than three-quarters of small counties (fewer than 50,000 residents) still had not reached their pre-recession peaks in any of the indicators by the close of 2016.

The Takeaway: Both the acceleration of the economic recovery and the fact that it’s mostly happening in very populated areas is widening the gap between the municipal haves and have nots. It also partly explains shifting political allegiances in some mid-sized counties in 2016.

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The Week in Public Finance: Hartford in Crisis, Pension Rates Move Down and More

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Bad News for Hartford, Conn.

A report from the Yankee Institute this week warned Connecticut’s capital is careening toward insolvency. “Hartford will likely face bankruptcy unless the state intervenes in the coming months,” wrote Stephen Eide, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute who authored the report.

Connecticut has repeatedly struggled with slow growth and state budget deficits, but that economic imbalance is even more exaggerated with its urban centers. The report warns that Bridgeport, Waterbury and New Haven also have declining tax bases and rising pension obligations -- just not to the extent that Hartford does.

More than one-third of Hartford residents live in poverty, the highest rate in the nation in cities larger than 100,000. What's more, the city has increased its debt and structural budget deficit to stay afloat. Between 2016 and 2018, Hartford’s debt service expenses are projected to increase from $23 million to $45 million, and then reach $60 million in fiscal 2021.

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5 Hot Topics Hitting Public Finance in 2017

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BY  | DECEMBER 29, 2016

In what could be a tumultuous year for state and local finances, these five issues are likely to take center stage.

Tax Reform

Many Capitol Hill watchers expect federal tax reform to roll forward in some fashion in 2017 now that a Republican will be in the White House. There are two major proposals on the table that could directly result in higher costs for states.

For starters, many in Congress have been supportive of limiting the tax-exempt status of municipal bonds. Removing this tax perk for bond investors would force governments to offer higher interest rates on the debt, thus increasing their cost of paying off that debt.

It’s hard to overstate the potential impact of such a move. One estimate pegged the current tax perk savings for state and local governments at about $714 billion from 2000 to 2014. For its part, the federal government estimates it loses as much as $30 billion in potential income tax revenue each year as a result of the perk.

Budget Shortfalls Expected in the Most States Since Recession

Almost half the states cut their budgets this year, and that trend is likely to continue into 2017.
BY  | DECEMBER 13, 2016

Weak revenues are causing the most state budget shortfalls since the Great Recession.

According to the National Association of State Budget Officers’ (NASBO) annual state spending survey, half of all states saw revenues come in lower than budgeted in fiscal 2016 and nearly as many (24) are seeing those weak revenue conditions carry into fiscal 2017, which ends in summer 2017 for most states. It marks the highest number of states falling short since 36 budgets missed their mark in 2010.

As a result, 19 states made mid-year budget cuts in 2016, totaling $2.8 billion. That number of states “is historically high outside of a recessionary period,” according to the report.

The revenue slowdown is caused mainly by slow income tax growth, even slower sales tax growth and an outright decline in corporate tax revenue

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To Prepare for the Next Recession, States Take Stress Tests

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No government can be fully prepared for every economic twist and turn. Still, some are trying.
BY  | DECEMBER 12, 2016

The Great Recession was uniquely devastating for states and localities because it hit all three major tax revenue sources: income, sales and property. It was a scenario that few, if any governments, were really prepared to absorb. As a result, governments were forced to make massive budget cuts.

Now, as the recovery trudges on longer than most, a growing number of states are making sure they aren’t blindsided by the next downturn.

Enter stress testing. The idea, which was borrowed from the U.S. Federal Reserve, essentially throws different economic scenarios at a state budget to see how revenues would be impacted.

“We’re in an environment where everyone is starting to think about the next downturn and what that’s going to look like,” said Emily Raimes, a Moody’s Investors Service analyst. “A stress test is a tool for states to think about what types of programs they should commit to and how much to save now.”

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Facing Weak Revenues, States' Spending Growth Slows

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BY  | NOVEMBER 17, 2016

Declining tax revenues has driven a slowdown in state spending, according to a new report from the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO).

In fiscal 2016, state spending grew by an estimated 4 percent. That growth rate is significantly slower than the relatively sharp increase of 6.9 percent in fiscal 2015, which also marked a 10-year high in spending growth.

Spending from the general fund grew 3.1 percent from fiscal 2015, which is significantly lower than increases in prior years and is a full percentage point lower than NASBO predicted for 2016 spending. The shrinkage was largely driven by declines in personal income and sales tax revenue growth.

In total, general fund revenues increased just 1.8 percent in 2016, compared with 4.8 percent the year before. Corporate income taxes -- a smaller portion of states’ general revenues -- saw a significant decline of 5.8 percent.

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New Jersey Voters Refuse to Build Casinos Outside Atlantic City

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With Atlantic City in financial crisis because of casino closures, the state's voters aren't willing to take any more gambles.
BY  | NOVEMBER 8, 2016

Atlantic City will keep its monopoly on New Jersey's gambling industry. Voters overwhelmingly rejected a ballot measure that would have added two new casino sites in the northern part of the state.

The results are a rare win for the struggling seaside resort town, which has met repeated disappointment in recent years as casinos have closed and pushed the city into a fiscal crisis.

In the weeks leading up to the vote, polling showed the measure headed for defeat. With about half of precincts reporting on Tuesday night, results showed the referendum failing 78 percent to 22 percent.

Although the measure said about one-third of any new casino revenue would have gone to Atlantic City for 15 years for economic revitalization, opponents said they doubted the revenue-sharing proposal would generate enough money to make a difference. Opponents included casino worker unions and Atlantic City-area stakeholders.

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The Week in Public Finance: NYC's $3 Billion in Giveaways, Weak Revenues and Jacksonville's Pension Fix

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A roundup of money (and other) news governments can use.
BY  | NOVEMBER 4, 2016

Why New York City Gave Up $3 Billion in 2016

New York City is the first major government this year to release what it gives up in economic development-related tax incentives to corporations, following new financial reporting requirements. In its annual financial report, the city disclosed that it waived more than $3 billion in potential tax revenue in 2016 alone, mostly in uncollected property taxes.

The tax abatements represent a little under 4 percent of the city’s nearly $80 billion in general fund revenue in fiscal 2016, which ended on June 30.

The most expensive abatement was for the commercial conversion program, which cost nearly $1.3 billion in forgone revenue last year. The program encourages new housing in the city by offering a property tax discount on new construction or on commercial space that was converted into residential housing. Developments have to meet certain requirements, like reserving one-fifth of the units for affordable housing.

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The Week in Public Finance: Unsustainable Health-Care Costs, an Oil State Not in Crisis and More

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BY  | SEPTEMBER 9, 2016

Retiree Health-Care Liabilities Are Dramatically Increasing

State governments’ cost of keeping all their promises to retirees is “unsustainable.” That’s the conclusion of a report this week by S&P Global Ratings that looked at the growth in total retiree health-care liabilities across state governments.

In just two years, so-called "other post-employment benefit" (OPEB) liabilities have increased 12 percent, to $554 billion for states alone. This reverses a trend of stable to declining liabilities found in S&P’s past two annual surveys.

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Is Ending Atlantic City's Casino Monopoly Worth the Gamble?

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The closure of casinos in Atlantic City has left the municipality in financial crisis. Now New Jersey wants to build more in other places.
BY  | SEPTEMBER 8, 2016

A proposal to end Atlantic City’s casino monopoly in New Jersey would spell the end for the struggling seaside resort town. At least that's what opponents of the idea say.

Backers of the ballot measure, however, say it's the city's best hope for revitalizing its downtown and diversifying its economy beyond gaming.

This November, New Jersey voters will decide whether to allow two new casinos to be built in the state. About one-third of any new casino revenue would go to Atlantic City for 15 years for economic revitalization.

The vote comes as Atlantic City, once the East Coast’s gaming capital, has struggled in the face of increased competition in neighboring states. In the past 15 years, more than a dozen casinos have opened in Maryland, New York and Pennsylvania

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The Week in Public Finance: Unbalanced Budgets, Alaska's Tax Battle and Creditor Complaints

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A roundup of money (and other) news governments can use.
BY  | JULY 15, 2016

Unbalanced Budgets

Fiscal 2017 isn't starting off so well for some states.

In Mississippi, officials announced they need to withdraw up to $63 million from the rainy day fund to cover declining revenues that left it with an $85 million budget shortfall. The announcement came just two days after the legislature removed the state’s restriction on how much it can withdraw from the fund in any given year. It reduces the state’s savings to just 1.4 percent of its general fund budget. Both moves drew criticism from Moody’s Investors Services.

Pennsylvania this week was placed on a credit watch by Standard & Poor’s rating agency for passing a budget that failed to offer a spending plan for more than $1 billion of it. Lawmakers eventually agreed on a revenue plan, but it still requires borrowing more than $200 million from a separate state fund.

Moody’s also criticized Kansas this week for yet another shortfall. We recently mentioned that Kansas is one of four states in a recession, according to federal economic data. Its total tax revenue was more than 7 percent short of what it expected for fiscal 2016. The state has struggled to meet its revenue expectations ever since lawmakers approved income tax cuts in 2012 and 2013.

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The Week in Public Finance: Punishment for Illinois, Budget Battles and New Jersey's Win

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A roundup of money (and other) news governments can use.
BY  | JUNE 10, 2016

A Battle Over Illinois’ Downgrade

Illinois was downgraded this week to two steps above junk status by Moody’s Investors Service. The downgrade is largely due to the state’s inability to pass a budget for the past year and a half. A political stalemate has crippled lawmaking in the state and Illinois -- already the lowest-rated state -- is being docked now with a Baa2 rating. The state’s current budget gap has only worsened over the past year. The structural budget deficit, including what Illinois is supposed be spending on pensions but isn’t, amounts to 15 percent of total general fund expenditures, Moody’s said. A day after the Moody's downgrade, Standard & Poor's also downgraded Illinois.

Apparently unperturbed by the fact that its overwhelming debt is what got it into this pickle, Illinois plans to borrow a half-billion in bonds later this month. The downgrade will likely increase the interest rate Illinois will have to pay on those bonds and impact the state’s outstanding $26 billion in debt.

Not long after the downgrade, the world’s largest money manager said investors should boycott Illinois’ upcoming sale.

“We as municipal market pa

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The Week in Public Finance: Muni Credit Trends, the Next Round of Tax Reforms and More

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A roundup of money (and other) news governments can use.
BY  | MAY 20, 2016

What’s Going on With Muni Credits?

The trend of local governments only seeking out one credit rating for bonds is growing. Now, one in five bonds issued in the municipal market has just a single credit rating assigned to it, according to data from Municipal Market Analytics (MMA).

This can be attributed to several factors. For one, fewer individual investors -- the biggest users of credit ratings information -- are directly purchasing muni bonds, so the demand for multiple ratings has lessened. Also, agencies are increasingly giving different ratings to the same bond, which “undermines the notch-by-notch value of individual rating assignments," said MMA analyst Matt Fabian.

Along with this trend is another one: A significant portion of municipal issuers are worse off than they were at the end of the Great Recession. By the measure of PNC Capital Markets analyst Tom Kozlik, 20 percent of state and local governments have seen their underlying credit quality decline -- some significantly so.

Kozlik blames this on one key fact: governments' inability to balance their revenue and spending to live within their means. “Also,” Kozlik adds, “some state and local governments still have not grasped the scale, costs and risk that pension liabilities and other post-employment benefits still pose to credit quality and fiscal balance.”