BY LIZ FARMER | OCTOBER 14, 2016
New Jersey: Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Moody’s Investors Service has panned New Jersey’s plan to beef up its transportation funding, mainly because it does so at the expense of other state programs. The legislature this month approved a 23-cent gas tax increase, which will raise approximately $1.2 billion.
Governments Punish Wells Fargo
Some governments are temporarily cutting ties with Wells Fargo thanks to a scandal involving thousands of unauthorized accounts.
This week, Illinois and the city of Chicago announced they're joining California and suspending their relationship with the bank for at least one year. Meanwhile, Massachusetts, Oregon and the city of New York are reviewing their business ties with the firm.
BY LIZ FARMER | SEPTEMBER 23, 2016
The tiny town of Ralston, Neb., was surprised by a seven-notch "superdowngrade" this week when its arena bonds were sent hurdling into junk rating territory. S&P Global Ratings said it moved the rating from A+ to BB because of the financial strain the building is placing on the city of roughly 6,000 people.
BY LIZ FARMER | SEPTEMBER 16, 2016
A new study on how pensioners spend their money will likely give a boost to those who want to keep traditional, defined benefit pension plans in the public sector.
Published this week by the nonprofit National Institute on Retirement Security (NIRS), the analysis on pension retiree spending in 2014 estimates it resulted in $1.2 trillion in total economic output. The total is based on about a half-trillion in benefits paid to public and private pensioners in 2014. State and local pension benefits account for about half ($253 billion) of those benefits.
BY LIZ FARMER | SEPTEMBER 9, 2016
State governments’ cost of keeping all their promises to retirees is “unsustainable.” That’s the conclusion of a report this week by S&P Global Ratings that looked at the growth in total retiree health-care liabilities across state governments.
In just two years, so-called "other post-employment benefit" (OPEB) liabilities have increased 12 percent, to $554 billion for states alone. This reverses a trend of stable to declining liabilities found in S&P’s past two annual surveys.
Megadeals Don’t Add Up
Looking at more than 170 economic development "megadeals" made in recent decades, a new report finds that states and localities spend more than $658,000 per job on average. By contrast, “most workforce development programs cost only a few thousand dollars per job, and studies find they pay off well,” said Thursday's report by Good Jobs First, which tracks government subsidies.
BY LIZ FARMER | AUGUST 26, 2016
A new analysis of state public pension plans this week shows that only one in three states are actually on a path to reduce their unfunded liabilities.
The report, by the Pew Charitable Trusts, used a new metric called net amortization, which essentially measures whether a pension plan’s accounting assumptions and payment schedule are holding up over time. Only 15 states are achieving positive amortization, according to Pew. In other words, they're following contribution policies that are sufficient to pay down pension debt. The remaining 35 states are facing negative amortization, or are following contribution policies that allow the funding gap to continue to grow.
Investors in the municipal market have long demanded better access to governments’ financial information, particularly since the 2008 financial crisis. But tired of waiting, an industry group stepped up its calls for federal regulators to intervene this week in a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
“The failure to publicly disclose bank loans to all market participants can lead to unexpected rating changes that negatively impact bond pricing,” said Lisa Washburn, chair of the National Federation of Municipal Analysts (NFMA). The group is calling for governments to disclose all interim but relevant information, such as an approved fiscal year budget and tax receipts, as well as clearly report any long-term debt obligations.
The letter also suggests that the SEC adopt the authority to ensure that municipalities file their financial disclosures in a timely manner. Currently, there is no enforced deadline, and governments typically file annual reports anywhere from six months to a year after the close of a fiscal year.
The Takeaway: The problem from an investor point of view is that the more troubled an issuer is, the more likely it will delay releasing relevant financial information. Take Puerto Rico, which is essentially out of cash and only recently issued its annual financial report for the 2014 fiscal year.
Houston is fighting a losing battle with its pension system: The unfunded liability between Houston’s three plans totals at least $3.9 billion, up from $212 million in 1992. Meanwhile, pension costs as a percentage of the city’s revenue have doubled since 2000 and were one of the reasons behind a recent credit rating downgrade.
A new report from Rice University’s Kinder Institute identifies two main culprits for the funding crisis: Even though the city is now paying its full pension bill, it’s still not enough to chip away at the unfunded liability, and the three plans have assumed investment returns of between 8 and 8.5 percent -- that's higher than the national average and even higher than their own recent experience.
The report's authors looked at examples of pension changes in other major cities and highlighted potential solutions, including raising the cap on the city’s revenues so it can generate more money for pensions; increasing employee contributions; and reducing cost-of-living payments to retirees. “All of these options would generate different amounts of funding in different time frames,” the report said. "[But] none would likely solve the problem alone.”
Pennsylvania this week became one of a few states that taxes online streaming video services like Netflix and and Hulu, a development that has consumers complaining but other governments watching closely.
The expansion of the state’s 6 percent sales tax was part of a revenue package passed earlier this year to fill a $1.3 billion hole in the state’s new $31.5 billion budget. Pennsylvania also extended the sales tax to digital downloads like music and ebooks. Sixteen other states already do that, but it has proven difficult to tax streaming services.
Last year, Alabama lawmakers tabled a study that would have expanded its 4 percent digital downloads tax to streaming services. Vermont looked at the issue but then the technology was more akin to a service than a tangible good. Massachusetts passed a wide-ranging technology tax in 2013 that was quickly repealed after the tech industry complained of the difficulties of complying to it. (For the record, Florida does apply a small communications tax to streaming services.)
The municipal bond market could be off to its best start since 2010, when federal policies helped fuel new issuance. During the first six months of this year, a total of $221 billion in bonds have been brought to market by state and local governments, according to data from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA). The total includes new bonds and refinanced ones.
Most of that activity has come from the second quarter of the year, specifically in May and June when the volume of new bonds in each month was the highest since 2008, according to an analysis by RBC Capital Markets’ Chris Mauro. Even Puerto Rico’s recent default on a $2 billion debt payment has not appeared to phase investors or hurt interest rates.
The market is currently on pace to finish the year with over $430 billion in issuance. But with more than five months to go before the end of the year, anything could happen -- particularly with a volatile presidential contest underway. Last year, the pace cooled in the second half of the year, with the value of total bonds issued finishing just shy of $400 billion. Still, Mauro said he is increasing his original prediction of new bond volume to somewhere between $400 billion and $425 billion.
Fiscal 2017 isn't starting off so well for some states.
In Mississippi, officials announced they need to withdraw up to $63 million from the rainy day fund to cover declining revenues that left it with an $85 million budget shortfall. The announcement came just two days after the legislature removed the state’s restriction on how much it can withdraw from the fund in any given year. It reduces the state’s savings to just 1.4 percent of its general fund budget. Both moves drew criticism from Moody’s Investors Services.
Pennsylvania this week was placed on a credit watch by Standard & Poor’s rating agency for passing a budget that failed to offer a spending plan for more than $1 billion of it. Lawmakers eventually agreed on a revenue plan, but it still requires borrowing more than $200 million from a separate state fund.
Moody’s also criticized Kansas this week for yet another shortfall. We recently mentioned that Kansas is one of four states in a recession, according to federal economic data. Its total tax revenue was more than 7 percent short of what it expected for fiscal 2016. The state has struggled to meet its revenue expectations ever since lawmakers approved income tax cuts in 2012 and 2013.
New economic data shows what Oklahoma officials have been fearing: The state has officially entered a recession. Revised federal Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data shows that the state’s gross domestic product was negative for most of 2015.
A recession starts when there are two quarters of economic contraction. Originally, the BEA reported that Oklahoma’s economy contracted in the second quarter, grew by 0.1 percent during the third quarter and contracted again in the last quarter of last year. But the third quarter figure was recently revised downward to -0.6 percent.
Data for the first quarter of 2016 is expected to be released later this month, but according to State Treasurer Ken Miller, the prospects don’t look good.
“General indicators fail to point to any marked economic recovery at this point,” he said in his latest state economic report.
Congress this week has reached an agreement on a rescue bill for Puerto Rico. The troubled territory is set to default for a third time over the past year on a debt payment due today. The legislation, which was signed by President Obama Thursday, follows a long-running debate about whether Congress should intervene at all.
The bill, called the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management and Economic Stability Act, or PROMESA, passed the House of Representatives earlier this month and the Senate on Wednesday. The legislation would allow the island a path to restructure its more than $70 billion in debt while installing a financial control board to govern its finances. It was modeled after similar legislation for Washington, D.C., whose finances were also subject to a control board two decades ago.
The Takeaway: The legislation won’t stop Puerto Rico from defaulting on its $2 billion debt payment Friday. But the fact that it now has a path to solvency -- however murky and long -- delivers a message of certainty to municipal market investors. To be sure, investors will take a hit and Puerto Rico’s officials will lose immediate control of the island’s financial future. But the process will be far more orderly than it has been in the past year or so. Litigation promised “to be endless and to consume scarce resources of the beleaguered commonwealth’s government," former New York Lt. Gov. Richard Ravitch pointed out in an op-ed this week
On Thursday, Britain voters shocked the world by deciding to exit the European Union in a vote that became known as "Brexit," a combination of Britain and exit. The result, which prompted Prime Minister David Cameron to say he will step down in the coming months, has implications for global financial markets, which in turn can affect the U.S. municipal market.
Even before the results of the vote were in, the uncertainty of the outcome was affecting markets everywhere. Global stocks and some corporate bonds had slumped while demand for traditionally safer assets like U.S. Treasuries and municipal bonds had “soared,” according to Ivan Gulich, senior vice president of the financial firm Loop Capital Markets.
This increased demand for municipal bonds has driven down interest rates, which is good for governments looking to borrow money. For example, the interest rate on a 30-year Treasury bond is currently lower than it was even in the wake of the Lehman Brothers' 2008 bankruptcy that roiled the corporate market and drove demand toward government securities.
“What was initially seen as an issue for Europe has rattled markets around the world,” wrote Gulich this week in an analysis.
Defending Wall Street Fees
The performance fees that public pension plans pay private equity and hedge fund managers are coming under scrutiny. Some say the high fees aren’t worth the returns on investment and complain that many costs remain hidden. Those two points were part of a critical report last month by the right-leaning Maryland Public Policy Institute on Maryland’s hidden Wall Street fees.
Now, the Maryland State Retirement Agency has issued a lengthy response questioning the institute’s conclusions. In a letter published this month by Executive Director R. Dean Kenderdine and Chief Investment Officer Andrew C. Palmer, the system’s officials attack the institute’s methodology while defending its own financials.
Maryland reported paying $85 million in performance fees in 2014, but according to the report it may have actually paid more than $250 million. The policy institute made that estimate by comparing Maryland’s disclosed performance fee rate against the rate of performance fees disclosed by New Jersey, which has a similarly sized alternative investment portfolio and fairly comprehensive fee disclosure policy.
But Kenderdine and Palmer say Maryland's $85 million in reported fees are accurate because New Jersey has been “much more aggressive in its pacing of investments.” In other words, the private equity funds New Jersey invests in are designed to start producing returns soon after the pension puts money in the fund. Maryland’s private equity funds, however, haven’t hit that so-called harvesting period when investments are sold and managers receive performance fees from that profit, said Kenderdine and Palmer. So the performance fees are smaller but could theoretically be larger in the coming years.
Illinois was downgraded this week to two steps above junk status by Moody’s Investors Service. The downgrade is largely due to the state’s inability to pass a budget for the past year and a half. A political stalemate has crippled lawmaking in the state and Illinois -- already the lowest-rated state -- is being docked now with a Baa2 rating. The state’s current budget gap has only worsened over the past year. The structural budget deficit, including what Illinois is supposed be spending on pensions but isn’t, amounts to 15 percent of total general fund expenditures, Moody’s said. A day after the Moody's downgrade, Standard & Poor's also downgraded Illinois.
Apparently unperturbed by the fact that its overwhelming debt is what got it into this pickle, Illinois plans to borrow a half-billion in bonds later this month. The downgrade will likely increase the interest rate Illinois will have to pay on those bonds and impact the state’s outstanding $26 billion in debt.
Not long after the downgrade, the world’s largest money manager said investors should boycott Illinois’ upcoming sale.
“We as municipal market pa
State and local finance officers across the country got together this week to pressure corporations about the lack of diversity on their governing boards. The group, made up of 14 pension fund fiduciaries -- six of whom are women or minorities -- said boards “should cast wide nets in their search for the best talent and include nominees who are diverse in terms of race, gender and LGBT status.”
Board diversification in recent years has been slow -- or even nonexistent. In fact, the percentage of all-white boards has actually increased over the past decade from 10 to 14 percent. Overall, white directors hold 85 percent of the board seats at the 200 largest S&P 500 companies, and men occupy 80 percent.
“Maintaining leadership that is primarily white and male means these companies are potentially missing out on the many benefits diversity can bring to the board room," said San Diego County Treasurer-Tax Collector Dan McAllister.
The Takeaway: This isn't the first time public finance officials have used their power to advocate for change.
After failing to agree on a budget for the 2017 fiscal year, Alaskan legislators met this week to begin a special session. The state is one of a handful that has yet to pass a budget for the upcoming year, which starts in five weeks for most. But Alaska is arguably in the toughest position.
Lawmakers extended their regularly scheduled session but still failed to decide how or whether to enact fiscal reforms that would close its structural budget deficit. According to Standard & Poor’s, the continued “impasse risks a government shutdown starting on July 1 when the state's new fiscal year begins.”
The cause of Alaska’s woes is simple: The prolonged drop in oil prices has hammered its budget, which largely relies on oil revenue. To meet expenses, the state has drawn out of its substantial rainy day fund over the past two years. As a result, its top AAA credit rating was stripped away in January.
The solutions, however, are not so simple. Gov. Bill Walker wants to completely revamp Alaska’s revenue system, which includes implementing the state’s first income tax in more than three decades and significantly reducing the annual stipends that residents receive from oil revenue. Instead Walker wants to funnel more of that revenue into a new state investment fund to support the budget. Still, legislators disagree about how many -- if any -- of those proposals to adopt, and many still want to tap into the state's rainy day fund again to balance the budget.
The trend of local governments only seeking out one credit rating for bonds is growing. Now, one in five bonds issued in the municipal market has just a single credit rating assigned to it, according to data from Municipal Market Analytics (MMA).
This can be attributed to several factors. For one, fewer individual investors -- the biggest users of credit ratings information -- are directly purchasing muni bonds, so the demand for multiple ratings has lessened. Also, agencies are increasingly giving different ratings to the same bond, which “undermines the notch-by-notch value of individual rating assignments," said MMA analyst Matt Fabian.
Along with this trend is another one: A significant portion of municipal issuers are worse off than they were at the end of the Great Recession. By the measure of PNC Capital Markets analyst Tom Kozlik, 20 percent of state and local governments have seen their underlying credit quality decline -- some significantly so.
Kozlik blames this on one key fact: governments' inability to balance their revenue and spending to live within their means. “Also,” Kozlik adds, “some state and local governments still have not grasped the scale, costs and risk that pension liabilities and other post-employment benefits still pose to credit quality and fiscal balance.”
