The Week in Public Finance: Ballmer's Data Trove, Grading Pension Health and a New Muni Bond Threat
As the Clock Ticks, Senate Stalls on State-Run Retirement Plans
The Week in Public Finance: States Warned of 'Profound Shift' in Finances, Hurting in Illinois and More
State Finances to Experience a 'Profound Shift'
Some states might soon be facing a come to Jesus moment. That was the sobering message this week from a senior analyst at S&P Global Ratings, who warned that a “profound shift” is occurring in state finances pressured by pension debt, slow revenue growth and demographic changes.
Gabe Petek noted Illinois, Kentucky and New Jersey are particularly vulnerable as they have persistently struggled to balance budgets during one of the longest economic expansion periods in modern U.S. history. But they’re not the only ones who should be put on notice. "This long period of relative calm may have lulled some people into complacency when it comes to state finances," he wrote in an editorial for The Hill. "It shouldn’t have."
In addition to slower revenue growth, declining worker-to-beneficiary ratios in state retirement systems and rising Medicaid enrollments "have meant that fiscal stress is no longer confined to recessionary times," he wrote.
This Infrastructure Program Ended Up Costing Governments Millions. Trump Might Bring It Back.
The Week in Public Finance: Detroit's Big Pension Plan, Debating the Pension Crisis and Counties Under the Gun
Detroit Hops on Pension Bandwagon
Detroit is joining Oklahoma and Kentucky in establishing a pension reserve fund. The fund essentially acts like a savings account; it's a place for governments to set aside money to help with increasing pension costs. In Detroit’s case, the fund will help the city plan for 2024, when pension costs are expected to skyrocket from $20 million annually to $200 million a year.
Thanks to Detroit's exit plan from bankruptcy in 2014, the city isn't paying the full cost of its pensions right now. A charitable foundation and the city's water and sewer system are shouldering much of those costs until 2023.
The Takeaway: Pension reserve funds are still largely experimental. The idea is that they will help buffer a pension system from reduced government payments during times of fiscal stress. Of course, a lot depends on how these reserve funds are cultivated. To be truly effective, they must grow to total much more than the government’s annual pension payment.
The Week in Public Finance: Trump's Budget, the CBO on Health Care and Accounting for Higher Ed
Trump’s Budget Cuts
This week, President Trump proposed his budget and, as expected, it focused federal spending cuts on a narrow area that impacts state and local governments the most: discretionary spending. The cuts come by way of diverting more than $54 billion from various federal agencies to defense spending.
The Takeaway: Paying for all these cuts would mean many programs beneficial to states and localities would be targeted. Under the plan, grant funding -- which accounts for 31 percent of state budgets and 22 percent of state and local spending combined -- takes an enormous hit. Specifically, Trump would eliminate the $3 billion Community Development Block Grant program, which was started by President Nixon as a way to provide direct federal assistance to city projects.
In transit, the president calls for a half-billion cut from the wildly popular TIGER grant program. He would also cut $175 million in subsidies for commercial flights to rural airports, eliminate funding for many new transit projects and discontinue support for long-distance Amtrak trains.